204BB46ABCC4C1A58725843F00573B40 Hearing Summary

Linda Harrison, Senior Statistical Analyst, Division of Criminal Justice in the Department of Public Safety, presented a prison population forecast (Attachment A).  She also distributed a document regarding factors influencing the prison population (Attachment B).  She explained that the division prepares two forecasts per year based on data from the Department of Corrections (DOC).   She discussed methodology and answered questions from the committee.   

Ms. Harrison showed that the prison population has decreased in contrast to projections and noted possible reasons for the decrease.   Ms. Harrison attributed the difference, among other reasons, to legislation, new board appointments, and changes in elected officials.  Committee members further discussed reasons why the forecast is higher than the actual inmate population and stressed the need to review methodology to obtain more accurate results. 

Committee discussion continued about the different entities that forecast the prison population, as well as references to other state methodologies.   

Ms. Harrison continued with 2019 projections.  Committee members asked about breaking out data further, such as by facility, levels of supervision, race, ethnicity, sex, and judicial district. 

Ms. Harrison discussed life and indeterminate sentences and the impact on the prison population.  The discussion turned to parole and probation revocations and if they are a result of a technical violation or new crime.  It was noted that new criminal filings have decreased over the past couple of years.   

Discussion ensued about the difficulties in tracking parole revocations because there are no data points in the system to track it other than by hand. 

Ms. Harrison made concluding remarks and observations.