Forecast September 2022

Focus Colorado presents forecasts for the economy and state government revenue through FY 2019-20. Implications of the forecast for the state's General Fund budget and spending limit are described in the report's highlights and executive summary sections. The report is based on current law, legislation passed by the General Assembly affecting the forecast is described throughout the report.

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Focus Colorado Sections:

Executive Summary

An executive summary of the full economic and revenue forecast.

General Fund Budget Overview

An overview of what the revenue forecast means for the General Fund budget, transfers to the State Education Fund, Senate Bill 09-228 transfers to capital construction and transportation, and tax policies available only when there is a certain level of growth in General Fund revenue.

School Finance Outlook

This section presents information on the outlook for school finance from a state budgetary perspective for the coming budget year (FY 2023-24) and incorporates new information from the September 2022 forecast for income tax diversions to the State Education Fund, federal mineral lease payments, marijuana tax revenue, Proposition EE tax revenue, and changes in inflation expectations. 

TABOR Outlook

Article X, Section 20 of the Colorado Constitution (TABOR) limits the annual state revenue the state may retain and either spend or save. This section presents the outlook for revenue subject to TABOR, the TABOR limit, and TABOR refunds. In addition, this section describes the mechanisms used to refund revenue in excess of the TABOR limit.

General Fund Revenue

The General Fund is the state's operating budget fund. It receives 95 percent of its revenue from income and sales taxes. Major General Fund revenue forecasts include:

• income taxes;
• sales and use taxes; and
• cigarette, tobacco products, and liquor excise taxes.

Cash Fund Revenue

Cash funds are separate from the state General Fund. Cash funds receive revenue from a specific fee or tax that are set aside to be used for a specific purpose. Major cash fund revenue forecasts include:

• gasoline taxes;
• vehicle registration fees;
• gaming taxes;
• hospital provider fees;
• severance taxes and federal mineral lease revenue; and
• unemployment insurance premiums, benefits, and the trust fund balance;
• marijuana tax revenue.

Economic Outlook

A summary and forecast of the health of the Colorado and national economy.

Colorado Economic Regions

Summaries of the current economy in the following regions:

• Metro Denver: Broomfield, Boulder, Denver, Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson counties.
• Colorado Springs: El Paso County.
• Pueblo and Southern Mountains: Pueblo, Fremont, Custer, Huerfano, and Las Animas counties.
• Northern: Weld and Larimer counties.
• Eastern: Logan, Sedgwick, Phillips, Morgan, Washington, Yuma, Elbert, Lincoln, Kit Carson, Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties.
• Mountain: Chafee, Clear Creek, Eagle, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson, Lake, Park, Pitkin, Routt, Summit, and Teller counties.
• San Luis Valley: Alamosa, Conejos, Costilla, Mineral, Rio Grande, and Saguache counties.
• Western: Delta, Garfield, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Mesa, Moffat, Montrose, Ouray, Rio Blanco, and San Miguel counties.
• Southwest Mountain Region: Archuleta, Dolores, La Plata, Montezuma, and San Juan counties.

Appendix

Historical economic data for the nation and Colorado.